Archive for the ‘News’ Category

Keep your identity small? Why do some discussions involving smart and reasonable people generate such emotive responses and so often go nowhere? Why does this happen more often for politics and religion than for discussing, say, preferred sock colours? In Paul Graham’s essay Keep Your Identity Small, he suggests that these topics are often too

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Our predictions fail in predictably bad ways. Picture the last time you were getting ready to leave the house and you were asked how much longer you would take. And when was the last time you actually left by then? You might be better at this than I am, but I have struggled with forecasting

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In the five months before I saw Divergent, I went to the gym twice. In the five months since then, I’ve been just over fifty times (as well as making forays into interval sprints and Crossfit). A lot of things came together to make that happen, but no small part of it was that I

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A lesson in reference class forecasting, from our neighborhood Chinese restaurant: (Don’t get it? Read this.)

(A guest post from CFAR April ’13 alum Brienne Strohl) I used to be afraid of checking the balance of my bank account. I felt as though finding out how much money I had caused me to lose money, so I’d go weeks, sometimes a month, without checking it–even though my income was tiny and

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