Archive for the ‘News’ Category

In the five months before I saw Divergent, I went to the gym twice. In the five months since then, I’ve been just over fifty times (as well as making forays into interval sprints and Crossfit). A lot of things came together to make that happen, but no small part of it was that I

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A lesson in reference class forecasting, from our neighborhood Chinese restaurant: (Don’t get it? Read this.)

(A guest post from CFAR April ’13 alum Brienne Strohl) I used to be afraid of checking the balance of my bank account. I felt as though finding out how much money I had caused me to lose money, so I’d go weeks, sometimes a month, without checking it–even though my income was tiny and

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(This is a guest post from Louie Helm, CFAR alum April ’13 and the founder of Rockstar Research Magazine.) Like many people, I have goals. And because I care about my goals, I try my best to track them. Therefore I use the standard tool for tracking goals: Beeminder. With Beeminder, I can see in

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At each of our workshops, we run prediction market games throughout the weekend, which are a chance for participants to check their credence and practice updating their beliefs based on new evidence. When one of the participants suggested a Game of Thrones-themed market at our June workshop in Berkeley, I was happy to acquiesce. Betting

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