Author Archive

My own behavior baffles me. I find myself doing what I hate, and not doing what I really want to do! – Saint Paul (Romans 7:15) Once you’re trained in BayesCraft, it may be tempting to tackle classic problems “from scratch” with your new Rationality Powers. But often, it’s more effective to do a bit of scholarship first

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May 06

How to Be Happy

by in News

[cross-posted at Less Wrong] One day a coworker said to me, “Luke! You’re, like, the happiest person I know! How come you’re so happy all the time?” It was probably a rhetorical question, but I had a very long answer to give. See, I was unhappy for most of my life,1 and even considered suicide

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Co-authored with Gwern Branwen, who did most of the work. Data & code available here. Updates 11/09 3:30pm Pacific: Updated Brier scores, added Simon Jackman, added ‘2008 Repeat’ baseline. 11/09 9pm Pacific: Updated scores, added Wang & Ferguson. 11/11 2:30am Pacific: Added appendix, updated scores with final batch of data from Wang & Ferguson. 11/26

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In the opening pages of Introduction to Decision Analysis, decision analyst David Skinner tells the harrowing story of “the hardest decision [he] ever made”: In September of 1998, I was working… in Venezuela when I received a phone call from a good friend that my wife… was in the hospital… I quickly called the hospital,

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In 2003, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was diagnosed with cancer. Luckily, it was a type of pancreatic cancer with a very high survival rate. Unfortunately, Jobs resisted his doctors’ recommendations for mainstream medical treatment for nine months. Instead, he turned to experts in “alternative medicine,” including an acupuncturist and a psychic. Jobs finally consented to

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